Peninsula Market Update: Week of October 27, 2026
San Carlos homes sold at 113% of list price this week while Foster City sat at 38 days. The Peninsula is not one market. Here's where the gap is widest.
This Week's Key Numbers
San Carlos showed the highest sale-to-list figure among the cities I can report. For the week ending October 25, homes there sold at 113% of list price, with a 6-day average on market for closed sales. Only 19 homes were active, and the median was $2,500,000.
Belmont sold at 105% of list, with a $2,715,000 median. That median is up 17.8% year over year, and just 16 homes are active. Note that the Belmont figures are not tied to the same exact week as the San Carlos figures, so compare them with care.
Foster City looked different. Homes averaged 38 days on market and sold at 102.9% of list, while active listings fell 37.5% year over year.
For context, the 30-year fixed sits at 7.32% and the 15-year at 6.68% for the week of October 22, according to Freddie Mac via FRED. One honest note: this week's data is thin, so I'm only sharing figures I can verify.
San Carlos and Belmont: Strong Sale-to-List Numbers
Look at the speed gap. San Carlos closed sales averaged 6 days on market. Belmont averaged 26 days, with a median of 12. An average that sits well above the median can mean a few listings took longer than the rest, but this data alone doesn't confirm that. If you're shopping Belmont, a look at individual listings will tell you more than the summary.
Keep the sample size in mind, too. San Carlos had 4 new listings and 7 closed sales. Belmont had 23 new listings and 21 closed sales. The source for San Carlos was incomplete, and its 113% and 6-day figures may not line up exactly with the same week as Belmont's. Small counts can swing hard from one week to the next. So treat 113% as a strong signal, not a guarantee for every street.
Foster City: List Price Down, Competition Still Real
Here's the headline that can fool people. Foster City's list price is down 17.6% year over year. At the same time, active listings dropped 37.5%. That 17.6% is a list price figure, not a median sale price, and the data I have doesn't explain why it moved. I'd be careful about reading it as a drop in what homes are worth.
The competition data adds a different picture. Days on market are up 8.6% year over year, with the current average at 38 days, and homes still sold at 102.9% of list, up 0.3 points from last year. Buyers shouldn't assume a bargain. Sellers shouldn't assume a headline percentage applies to their home. Comparable sales on your own lagoon or block tell the real story.
Hillsborough and San Mateo: What Limited Data Tells Us
Hillsborough posted a $6.15M median sale price over the last 30 days. At that tier, just a few estate sales can move the median a lot, so I read it as a snapshot, not a trend.
San Mateo recorded 41 single-family sales in the last 30 days. That's steady activity. Without price or inventory figures this week, though, I won't stretch it further. As a San Mateo real estate agent, I'd rather give you a clear picture from recent comps than guess.
Cities Without Fresh Numbers: Burlingame, Redwood City, and Others
This week I don't have reliable figures for San Bruno, Millbrae, Burlingame, Redwood City, Atherton, or Menlo Park. I won't fill the gap with guesses. If you're watching one of these cities, I'm happy to pull an address-level report and walk you through it by phone. That's simply how I've worked since 1978. For earlier context, my October 19 update is a useful reference.
What This Means for Buyers & Sellers
Buyers: In San Carlos and Belmont, where homes are selling at 105% to 113% of list, get your loan pre-underwritten and set a firm walk-away number. Understand every contingency before you waive one. Price isn't the only lever, either. My guide to what wins a San Mateo County offer covers the rest. Foster City, at 38 days, may give you more room to negotiate.
Sellers: Low inventory rewards well-prepared homes. Still, pricing to your specific city beats any county-wide headline. A Belmont strategy won't fit Foster City. Small, smart fixes help, and these cost-effective upgrades are a good place to start.
Both: With the 30-year fixed at 7.32%, every $100,000 in price changes your monthly payment noticeably. Test payments at a few price points before you tour or list. As a Burlingame real estate agent who reads these numbers every week, I see the same pattern again and again. The buyers and sellers who know their own city's numbers are the ones who move with confidence.
Frequently Asked Questions
How hot is the market in San Carlos right now?
Very strong by the numbers I have. Homes sold at 113% of list price with a 6-day average on market, and only 19 homes were active. Keep in mind the sample was small, with 7 closed sales, so treat it as a strong signal, not a guarantee for every street.
Does Foster City's 17.6% price drop mean homes lost value?
Not necessarily. That 17.6% is a year-over-year change in list price, not median sale price, and the data doesn't explain the cause. Homes still sold at 102.9% of list, so check comparable sales on your own block.
What should buyers do in San Carlos and Belmont?
Get your loan pre-underwritten and set a firm walk-away number. Understand every contingency before you waive one. Homes there are selling at 105% to 113% of list.
Are Foster City buyers likely to find a bargain?
Don't assume one. Homes averaged 38 days on market, which may give you more room to negotiate, but they still sold above list at 102.9%.
What are mortgage rates right now?
For the week of October 22, the 30-year fixed was 7.32% and the 15-year was 6.68%, according to Freddie Mac. Test payments at a few price points before you tour or list.
Do you have numbers for Burlingame, Redwood City, and other cities this week?
Not reliable ones, and I won't guess. For San Bruno, Millbrae, Burlingame, Redwood City, Atherton, or Menlo Park, I'm happy to pull an address-level report and walk you through it by phone.
